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Mark Knudson’s Three Strikes Blog: Starting rookie QB not a ‘stone cold Lock’; Avs hoping to duplicate Nuggets bumpy road to success, and will Joe Parker stick it out at CSU?

@Mark Knudson41

Strike One: Brandon Allen has certainly accomplished enough this season with the Denver Broncos to all but guarantee himself a place to hang his clothes in the home team’s locker room next season. Allen’s isn’t the reason Denver has lost two of the three games he has started. Then again, he hasn’t done enough to help them win those games, either.

Against Buffalo in his third career start, Allen was 10-for-25 for 82 yards with an interception and a passer rating of 32.4. Again, not all his fault, but…ugg.

There’s almost universal agreement in Broncos Country: It’s time to see what rookie quarterback Drew Lock can bring to the struggling Broncos offense over the last five games of what figures to be the third consecutive losing season.

There’s no guarantee the Broncos offense will be any better with Lock under center. The offensive line remains a weak link. The running game and the passing game were equally ineffective in an ugly 20-3 loss at Buffalo. Until the Broncos build a line that’s better than average at least, no quarterback is going to stand out.

That doesn’t mean we can’t learn some things about the second-round draft pick from Missouri when he gets into a real NFL game for the first time.

A lot of folks have already given up on Lock, comparing him to failed first round draft pick Paxton Lynch. But if you watched Lock in pre-season games, he didn’t look like a dear-in-the-headlights the way Lynch did. He showed flashes. Yes, he’s raw, needs experience and a better understanding of the speed of the game. But he can’t learn those things on the sidelines. So, if not now – with his team sitting at 3-8 – then when?

If we know one thing about today’s NFL, it’s that you need a standout QB in order to be a team capable of making a run in the post season. No one who has taken snaps for Denver since Peyton Manning retired fits into that category. We need to find out if Lock can change that.

Considering all this is Drew, in gambler terms, a “stone cold Lock” to be under center against the Chargers next Sunday?

Absolutely not. In fact, it would be a surprise if he started against LA.

Head Coach Vic Fangio, about as old school as any NFL head coach ever, was asked after the Buffalo loss if he was considering starting Lock next week. He said he hadn’t thought about it. While that’s typical coachspeak, and likely not the case, the fact that he didn’t say ‘yes’ can be taken to mean ‘no.’

Fangio will most likely stick with Allen as his starter against the Chargers.

However…if the Denver offense continues to sputter, we’ll probably see the rookie enter the game at some point, undoubtedly to a raucous ovation. This will be by design. Coaches see inserting a guy into the line-up in the middle of the game a better way to break in a young player…without the hoopla and pressure of being named the starter the week prior. Lock will get his first NFL snaps at Mile High against a division foe, but his first start will likely depend on how things go in his first relief appearance.

Strike Two: Championship seasons are rarely smooth sailing. Title teams normally must overcome some adversity along the way – be it a prolonged slump or losing skid, changes in personnel, or most commonly, a battle with the injury bug.

A season ago, on their way to their first division title and play-off berth in five seasons, the Denver Nuggets went through a spell where they lost four of their starting five players to injury at the same time. But rather than wither, the Nuggets excelled. While gaining valuable playing experience for several guys who would not normally play much, they also expanded their division lead on their way to a 54-win season.

This November, the Colorado Avalanche find themselves in much the same predicament as their Pepsi Center housemates were in last December, having suffered key injuries to players like Gabe Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen, Colin Wilson and Matt Calvert – all currently out of the line-up. At one point several weeks ago, they’d also lost both their regular goaltenders – Philip Grubauer and Pavel Francouz – and needed to call up Adam Werner from the Colorado Eagles to start against Winnipeg.

Werner made 40 saves and pitched a shut-out.

That’s what title team do. Next man up. Don’t miss a beat. Keep on winning.

Unlike the Nuggets though, this injury bug has taken a toll in the standings. Once on top of the Central Division after a blazing hot start, the Avs have now slid back into the middle of the pack, having lost two straight but still sitting five games above .500.

It stinks right now, especially being without their Captain Landeskog and Rantanen, two critical offensive players who when teamed with Nathan McKinnon form one of – if not the – top line in the NHL. Rantanen has returned to practice, which is a good sign. No word about when Landeskog will be back.

When these key players all do return, the Avs will be a better squad from top to bottom for having gone through this spell. They’ll have had to face adversity (much like they will in the post-season) and keep on grinding. Expectations don’t change. Everyone has to step it up.

More than anything else, THAT’S the quality that’s needed to succeed in the NHL play-offs.

As I pointed out during that hot start, it’s been five seasons since the team that won the President’s Trophy – given to the team with the best overall record in the NHL at season’s end – has won the Stanley Cup. Cruising through the regular season – like Tampa Bay did last season – isn’t a guarantee of anything. The Lightning were bounced in the first round. Likewise, the Calgary Flames, who were the top seed in the Western Conference last spring before getting ousted by…the eighth seeded Avalanche.

The Avs will get everyone back at some point, can absolutely win their division, and will be armed and ready for the play-offs after learning how to compete and succeed without all their weapons firing at once. While being better than the eighth seed is certainly what they want, being the team that finishes the regular season at the very top – and has that target on their back going in – isn’t all that great, either.

Strike Three: Colorado State fans are all wondering – with great justification – about the job status of football coach Mike Bobo, who unless his team pulls off a miracle upset of nationally ranked Boise State on Friday, will complete another disappointing sub-standard season, missing a bowl game for the third consecutive year.

Bobo’s job status is up in the air, and it should be.

But what about Bobo’s boss? The guy who will make that all important decision? Is Joe Parker in Fort Collins for the long term?

There’s a rumor floating around out there that the answer is no.

Some universities have trouble keeping good football coaches. Mid-level schools like oh, Wyoming for instance, have a history of hiring really good coaches who have some success…and then get a higher paying or most prestigious job offer and bolt town on the first stagecoach.

For example, Bob Devaney left Wyo for Nebraska (and won two National Championships) Fritz Shurmer moved the NFL to become a highly successful defensive coordinator, Fred Akers moved on to Texas where he won a couple conference titles, College Football Hall of Famer Pat Dye went to Auburn and won four SEC titles, Dennis Erickson left after one season for Washington State before taking over at Miami and winning two national titles, and Joe Tiller moved to Purdue to coach Drew Brees and win the Big Ten.

Cradle of coaches? Look no further than Laramie, Wyoming.

Colorado State hasn’t had that problem (although Ram fans may wish it did.) At CSU, keeping successful Athletic Directors on campus has been the issue.

After stalwart Ram Thurman “Fum” McGraw stepped down in 1986, it became something of a revolving door in the Fort. Oval Jaynes took over for five years before leaving for Pittsburgh. Tom Jurich lasted four seasons at CSU before going on to spend 20 years at Louisville. Tim Weiser moved to K State after four seasons and is now a Big 12 administrator, and Jeff Hathaway lasted two years before going back to UConn where both his Men’s and Women’s hoops teams won the National Championship in 2004. Only Paul Kowalszyk didn’t leave on his own…and he landed on his feet at Southern Illinois and then the U of Illinois. (Jack Graham of course stepped in and got the Canvas Stadium project started before butting heads with the school admin and being let go.)

The point is, at CSU, it’s the Athletic Director’s position that’s been the stepping-stone gig.

Which brings us back to Parker, who signed a five-year extension in December of 2017.

The man who will presumably decide Bobo’s fate may have other job aspirations of his own. There’s word out there that Parker may be looking to move on. If this were to happen, it’s highly unlikely he would fire Bobo – who still has three years left on his contract – anytime soon, but rather drop that situation into the lap of his successor.

Parker didn’t hire Bobo, so to tie his tenure entirely to the struggling football program is probably unfair. But he did give Bobo a nice contract extension after three consecutive 7-6 seasons in 2017. Bobo’s original deal would have been up after this season. Instead, the school is tied to the football coach through the 2022 season. The contract has a well-publicized and expensive buy-out clause.

Often times, AD’s are evaluated by the success of the football (and sometimes basketball) programs, and by that measure, it hasn’t been a great run for the former associate AD at Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Washington State. So, if Parker does indeed elect to move on, it probably would not be a promotion as much as a lateral move to another “Group of Five” program.

Right now, the AD has to stare at a lot of empty seats at beautiful Canvas Stadium, and simply hope that the improvements on this year’s Rams squad (and despite the record, there have been some of those) can be built upon next season.

That is, IF he and/or Bobo are still around.

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